Midterm Predictions with Karlyn Bowman

Narration: If Democrats regain control of the House, many expect they will move forward with impeachment proceedings. Other results of a Democratic House majority could include subpoenas, more investigations, and a further divided government, resulting in increased difficulties passing legislation.

Simone Gao: How will the governors’ races, along with the House and Senate races, impact the Trump administration and the American politics in general? Here’s Karlyn Bowman again.

Simone Gao: You said the governors’ races will be especially interesting to watch. Can you elaborate on that?

Karlyn Bowman: I think Republicans are going to lose a significant number of governorships this fall. That’s very important because our governors tend to be more outward looking. They tend to work a lot on trade within their states overall. They tend to work a lot on other issues. And they answer to the voters fairly often in the United States, and so those races are going to be particularly important. But overall, I expect Democrats to do well in the House of Representatives and, unfortunately not, from their point of view, to take back the U.S. Senate.

Simone Gao: So if the map is like this and the Democrats take the House and the Republicans hold the Senate and a lot of the governorships will go to Democrats, how will this new map affect President Trump?

Karlyn Bowman: Well, the big question is whether or not – if the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives, whether they will move to impeach the president. Many Democrats around the country think that that should be the case, that they should move to impeach Trump. But many others are very wary about that, so you don’t hear a lot of discussion on the campaign trail about impeachment. But once the election is over, and if the Democrats regain control, there will not only be just enormous pressure on the speaker, if it’s Nancy Pelosi or someone else, to move ahead on impeachment and also to move ahead on a series of investigations that could embarrass the president.

Simone Gao: Is there any chance that the Republicans will still hold the House?

Karlyn Bowman: There is certainly a chance that the Republicans will hold the House. And I confess I’m impressed by some of the people who watch individual races who are suggesting that this is not going to be a Democratic sweep. They’re much more careful about what they think will happen. And because most of us in Washington don’t analyze individual races, a few of us do, but most of us do not. And we’re also not on the ground, so it’s quite possible that we’re missing something big in the country, and the Republicans could continue to hold the House of Representatives.

 
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